How can you obtain the best decision from a group of so-called ‘experts’ about future events such as a natural disaster or stock market crash? Would you trust a family member’s opinion over a highly cited scientist, an economist, a successful entrepreneur, a military or political leader, or a High Court judge? Or would you trust them all equally? Or none at all? Using considerable experience and historical data, we have developed a technique known as ‘Expert Elicitation’. The technique assesses the abilities and reliability of each individual expert using a formula and taking into account responses to questions about the future. We will discuss how this technique has been successfully used in predictions for volcanic eruptions, dam failures, monetary policy, military engagements, future sea level rise, and other issues that confront decision makers.
Herbert Huppert is the Emeritus Professor of Theoretical Geophysics at the University of Cambridge, where he has been since 1968, having completed his undergraduate studies at Sydney University. He has used fundamental fluid mechanics to contribute to areas in meteorology, oceanography and the “solid” Earth Sciences.
He is a Fellow of The Royal Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society and the Royal Society of New South Wales. His most cited paper, with co-author Steve Sparks, published in 1988, on the melting of granitic crust by the input of hot basaltic magma has been cited more than 1,110 times.
This lecture forms part of a series of Selby Travelling Fellowship Lectures by the 2019 recipient Emeritus Professor Herbert Huppert which will also be detailed on the events pages of this website as dates and times are confirmed.
Fellowships are awarded to distinguished overseas scientists to visit Australia for public lecture/seminar tours and to visit scientific centres in Australia.
The Fellowship is financed through the generosity of the trustees of the Selby Scientific Foundation
Date: Monday 13th May 2019
Time: 5:30 pm–7:00 pm AEST
Location: University of Technology Sydney, City – Broadway. CB04 Building 4, 745 Harris Street, Broadway, NSW 2007
How can you obtain the best decision from a group of so-called ‘experts’ about future events such as a natural disaster or stock market crash? Would you trust a family member’s opinion over a highly cited scientist, an economist, a successful entrepreneur, a military or political leader, or a High Court judge? Or would you trust them all equally? Or none at all? Using considerable experience and historical data, we have developed a technique known as ‘Expert Elicitation’. The technique assesses the abilities and reliability of each individual expert using a formula and taking into account responses to questions about the future. We will discuss how this technique has been successfully used in predictions for volcanic eruptions, dam failures, monetary policy, military engagements, future sea level rise, and other issues that confront decision makers.
Herbert Huppert is the Emeritus Professor of Theoretical Geophysics at the University of Cambridge, where he has been since 1968, having completed his undergraduate studies at Sydney University. He has used fundamental fluid mechanics to contribute to areas in meteorology, oceanography and the “solid” Earth Sciences.
He is a Fellow of The Royal Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society and the Royal Society of New South Wales. His most cited paper, with co-author Steve Sparks, published in 1988, on the melting of granitic crust by the input of hot basaltic magma has been cited more than 1,110 times.
This lecture forms part of a series of Selby Travelling Fellowship Lectures by the 2019 recipient Emeritus Professor Herbert Huppert which will also be detailed on the events pages of this website as dates and times are confirmed.
Fellowships are awarded to distinguished overseas scientists to visit Australia for public lecture/seminar tours and to visit scientific centres in Australia.
The Fellowship is financed through the generosity of the trustees of the
Date: Monday 13th May 2019
Time: 5:30 pm–7:00 pm AEST
Location: University of Technology Sydney, City – Broadway. CB04 Building 4, 745 Harris Street, Broadway, NSW 2007
University of Technology Sydney, City – Broadway. CB04 Building 4,745 Harris Street New South Wales false DD/MM/YYYY© 2024 Australian Academy of Science
