We live in a risky world. Risks from antibiotic resistance, environmental impacts and international security are hot issues in research, but delaying action until the science is settled isn’t always feasible.
The Australian Academy of Science has today released a think tank report discussing how risk and uncertainty impact the decisions we make as a society.
The report addresses specific risks from antibiotic resistance, environmental challenges, international security, and also the challenges of making decisions when data is uncertain.
“Risks are part of life, and we need to learn how to make decisions when the data is uncertain,” said Professor Hugh Possingham, from the University of Queensland, who chaired the think tank steering committee.
“Some uncertainty is not worth resolving, it’s better to act sooner than wait until you are absolutely certain. Australians, as big gamblers, already love to embrace that uncertainty.”
Media are invited to attend the official launch of the report at the Shine Dome in Canberra today at 12.15 PM, by Academy President Professor Andrew Holmes AC PresAA FRS FTSE. It is the product of the 2016 Theo Murphy High Flyers Think Tank, which brought together 60 early and mid-career researchers from across the research sector from the humanities, social sciences and sciences.
“The think tank was a unique opportunity for the nation’s next generation of research leaders to inform the direction of Australia’s future,” Professor Holmes said.
Dr Roisin McMahon from Griffith University and Dr Maurizio Labbate from University of Technology Sydney attended the think tank and contributed to writing the recommendations report.
“Loss of effective antimicrobials could claim 10 million lives a year by 2050. We risk being unable to safely perform routine medical procedures such as hip replacements and caesarean sections,” Dr McMahon and Dr Labbate said.
They recommended changes to antibiotic prescription and usage, and proposed that antibiotic usage in foods be included on labels to inform and empower consumers.
The group also identified areas needing further study, such as the role of environmental pollution, including human and animal waste in the development of antimicrobial resistance.
The difficulty of adequately costing environmental impacts and factoring them into cost-benefit analyses when allocating resources for environmental projects was also discussed at the think tank.
The group flagged risks that unfold or change over long time periods as particularly difficult to grapple with.
They recommended that policy makers and scientists jointly develop a set of guidelines for cost-benefit analysis, and that tools used by scientists for sequential decision making could be simplified and adopted for policy makers.
“More data is not always better,” said Dr Kirsty Kitto from Queensland University of Technology.
“But sometimes uncertainty is misinterpreted as a lack of evidence by decision makers.”
The group found that even their own discussion of uncertainty was hampered by the differing language used between research fields. So they recommended the development of a common set of terminology to clarify communication between scientists and policy makers.
Uncertainty plays a large role in the risks inherent in negotiating international security concerns. The think tank also covered and offered recommendations on a broad range of international security issues such as global migration flows, Australia’s compliance with international legal obligations, environmental change and disruptive technologies.
The full report is available here https://www.science.org.au/think-tanks/risky-world.
Professor Possingham, Dr Kitto and Dr Labbate are available for interview.
Contact Academy Media Manager Dr Phil Dooley on 02 6201 9452, media@science.org.au
Image: Cross section of advanced fibres produced by bi-component extrusion by CSIRO
© 2024 Australian Academy of Science
