Michael Kearney is an ecologist, renowned for his transformative work in forecasting the future and fate of biodiversity through his development of mechanistic species distribution modelling. The approach enables researchers in agriculture, conservation and the biology of human and animal disease vectors to forecast accurately how species are distributed now and into the future. In contrast to other approaches, its mechanistic nature enables projections for the novel environments that changing climates will bring. Kearney’s work has transformed biodiversity forecasting globally, delivering significant benefits to fundamental and applied biology and the wellbeing of people and the ecosystems we rely on.