Submission – Belém Mission to 1.5

The Academy reaffirms the critical need to reduce global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

It is now virtually impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C without a period of overshoot, and pathways with overshoot involve considerable uncertainty. This fact should not deter action, rather it should accelerate it.

Based on current policies globally, we are on track to see warming of 2.8°C.

The economic, health, social, environmental, political and human costs of dealing with the likely consequences of this degree of warming far exceed the costs of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Urgent and ambitious action is required to limit warming as much as possible. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. As does the length and peak of overshoot.

This submission draws on Australia’s experience in science-informed climate action, with broader opportunities for parties in the Asia-Pacific and Southern Hemisphere.

As incoming COP31 President of Negotiations, Australia occupies a unique platform to model credible, ambitious action. The science capability investments and policy commitments recommended here are part of demonstrating that leadership in practice. 

The submission addresses actions and barriers related to Australia’s science capability that have the potential to advance ambition and implementation of Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution and National Adaptation Plan, as well as areas where Australia can exercise regional leadership in the Asia-Pacific.

The Academy recommends that:

1. the Australian Government should strategically direct resources to address science capability gaps, to strengthen the ability of Australia to mitigate and adapt to climate change and support evidence-informed policy in our region
2. the Australian Government should maintain and enhance Australia’s climate modelling capability, including its full integration into global models, recognising the essential role of this capability for Australia and the Southern Hemisphere
3. the Australian Government should establish and fund a long-term solution for earth system science to develop, coordinate and implement the national capability required to strengthen Australian climate modelling
4. the Australian Government should fund mechanisms to facilitate intersections, collaborations and relationship building between Traditional Knowledges and science
5. the Australian Government should pursue the highest end of Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution range (70% reduction in national greenhouse gas emissions below 2005 emission levels), or higher
6. the Australian Government should measure and reduce scope 3 emissions, recognising the full scope of Australia’s climate impact as an exporter of fossil fuels
7. Parties should set and implement national targets for methane emission reductions aligned with the Global Methane Pledge – a 30% reduction by 2030 from the 2020 baseline – and pursue actions to achieve that target
8. Parties should set national greenhouse gas removal targets, implement conventional and novel approaches and foster innovation in greenhouse gas removal science and technology
9. Parties should embed just adaptation principles in adaptation planning and implementation
10. Parties should facilitate the delivery of localised climate data to support local adaptation planning and interventions
11. Parties should invest in collaborative structures and science diplomacy architecture to underpin international collaboration on climate change mitigation and adaptation
12. Parties should commit to securing and sustaining open climate science.